The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell by 2.0 points in September to 98.8, marking the first decline in three months, though it remains above the long-term average of 98. The Uncertainty Index increased by 7 points from August to reach 100, one of its highest levels in over five decades.
State-specific data was not available, but Jared Weiser, Ohio State Director for the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), commented on the situation facing small business owners in Ohio. “Ohio’s small business owners are working hard to keep up with their customers’ demands, but it’s not without some challenges. With supply chain disruptions, a lack of qualified job applicants, and sales uncertainty, our members are feeling less optimistic about the economy. We will continue to work with Governor DeWine and members of the Ohio General Assembly to find ways to ease these issues for Main Street.”
Key findings from the September report show that inflation and supply chain problems remain significant concerns for small businesses. The percentage of owners raising average selling prices increased by three points to a net 24%, and plans for price increases over the next three months rose five points to a net 31%. Fourteen percent cited inflation as their main operational challenge, an increase from August.
Supply chain disruptions affected 64% of small business owners in September—up ten points from August—while inventory assessments saw a notable drop: a net negative 7% considered their inventory stocks too low, down seven points and representing the largest monthly decline recorded by the survey.
Earnings trends provided some positive news; actual earnings changes improved by three points—the highest since December 2021. However, expectations for better business conditions dropped sharply by eleven points to a net negative 23%.
Labor market challenges persisted. Eighteen percent named labor quality as their most important problem—a decrease from August—and this issue tied with taxes as top concerns among respondents. According to NFIB’s monthly jobs report, about one-third of all small business owners had unfilled job openings in September; this figure has not dipped below that level since July 2020. Among those hiring or attempting to hire last month, most reported few or no qualified applicants.
Hiring plans remained strong: a seasonally adjusted net 16% intended to create new jobs within three months—the fourth consecutive monthly increase and highest level since January.
Rising labor costs were also noted; eleven percent said labor costs were their biggest problem (up three points). Thirty-one percent reported increasing compensation (up two points), while nineteen percent planned further increases over the next quarter.
Capital investment activity held steady: fifty-six percent made capital outlays during the past six months. Most spent on equipment (42%), vehicles (22%), or facility improvements/expansions (14%). Plans for future capital spending remained weak at twenty-one percent.
Sales figures indicated more firms experienced declining rather than increasing sales recently; expectations for higher real sales volumes also decreased compared with August.
Inventory investment intentions did not change from August levels; only one percent planned additional investments soon.
Price pressures continued above historical averages—thirty-three percent reported higher selling prices versus ten percent reporting decreases—and thirty-one percent expected further price hikes soon.
Profit trend reports improved slightly but still reflected more negative than positive results overall; among those reporting lower profits, weaker sales and higher material costs were common reasons given.
Accessing credit became more difficult: seven percent found recent loans harder to obtain than before—the highest rate this year—and more paid higher interest rates on short-term loans averaging nearly nine percent interest annually.
When assessing overall business health, eleven percent rated their situation as excellent (down), while fifty-seven percent called it good (up). Ratings of fair or poor were unchanged at twenty-seven and four percent respectively.
Fewer respondents thought it was a good time to expand operations—only eleven percent agreed with this statement—a relatively low reading historically.
Taxes joined labor quality as leading single-issue concerns at eighteen percent each. Reports citing government regulations declined slightly while worries about poor sales or competition from larger businesses remained stable compared with previous months’ results.
Insurance cost/availability and financing/interest rates continued as lesser but persistent concerns among surveyed owners.
The NFIB Research Center has collected economic trend data through quarterly surveys since late 1973 and monthly surveys since 1986 using random samples drawn from its membership base. This latest survey was conducted during September 2025.
