Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, firearm purchases in the United States have risen significantly, with millions becoming first-time gun owners. Despite concerns that this increase would lead to higher rates of violent crime and firearm misuse, recent national and city-level data do not support these predictions.
Larry Keane writes, “Critics insisted that more guns in private hands would inevitably mean more violent crime and more criminal misuse of firearms — a national slide into a modern ‘Wild West.’ The most recent national and city-level data don’t support that claim. Even as lawful gun ownership expanded dramatically, violent crime, homicide, and several firearm-involved crimes have trended downward in recent years.”
Keane clarifies that the data does not suggest guns cause crime to fall but challenges the argument that an increase in lawful gun ownership automatically results in more murders or violence. He states, “Crime is driven by offender behavior, enforcement, prosecution, and local conditions. But it is a direct rebuttal to the overly simplistic gun control talking point that increases in lawful gun ownership will absolutely increase murder and firearm violence.”
Data from the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) indicates approximately 26.2 million Americans bought their first firearm between 2020 and 2024. NSSF-adjusted background checks related to retail sales estimate about 21.1 million firearms were purchased in 2020 alone and around 14.6 million in 2025.
The FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) reported over 39 million unadjusted background checks in 2020—the highest since its inception—while adjusted monthly checks stayed above one million for several years.
FBI statistics show declines in major crime categories for 2024: “In its 2024 summary report, the FBI estimates violent crime fell 4.5 percent from 2023 to 2024, and murder and nonnegligent manslaughter fell 14.9 percent.” Aggravated assaults involving firearms dropped by over eight percent during this period as well.
While homicides did rise sharply at the onset of the pandemic—up nearly thirty percent between 2019 and 2020—the trend did not persist alongside rising lawful gun ownership. Pew Research Center analysis using CDC mortality data shows gun murders decreased from a peak of nearly twenty-one thousand in 2021 to under eighteen thousand by 2023.
At the city level, findings are similar: The Council on Criminal Justice’s year-end update found homicides down sixteen percent across studied cities from 2023 to 2024 with fifteen percent fewer “gun assaults.” Real Time Crime Index data cited by analyst Jeff Asher reports murders declined nearly twenty percent nationwide from 2024 to 2025.
Following the U.S. Supreme Court’s Bruen decision expanding lawful carry rights, some officials warned of increased shootings; however, Keane notes: “Yet…the twelve-month running average of violent crime fell fourteen percent from June 2022 through October 2025 while murders fell thirty-nine percent over the same period.”
Keane concludes: “America can see increases in lawful gun ownership without automatically seeing increases in violent crime or firearm murders.” He argues effective strategies should focus on repeat offenders and illegal trafficking rather than assuming law-abiding owners drive up violence rates.
The Buckeye Firearms Association is active as a grassroots group supporting individuals’ rights to own firearms for purposes such as self-defense, hunting, competition and recreation according to their official website. Their efforts are centered on Ohio where they provide legislative alerts and information about training events (source). The association functions as a resource on laws affecting gun rights (source).
“With experts touting one of the largest one-year drops in homicides ever recorded in 2025,” Keane writes, “its clear: America can see increases in lawful gun ownership without automatically seeing increases in violent crime or firearm murders.”
He adds: “The predictable ‘Wild West’ blood-in-the-streets claim may be rhetorically useful for gun control advocates to advance their antigun political agenda, but it isn’t supported by the current crime data.”
