Buckeye Reporter

Ohio lawmakers plan to pivot within days from one politically-charged debate to another.

As state legislators rush to meet a June 30 constitutional deadline to balance the state budget, key staffers have already set the stage for the next constitutional battle, this time over redrawing the state’s political districts. 

The state constitution requires lawmakers to redraw the districts using the latest national census data to capture population changes over the last 10 years. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Ohio is expected to lose one congressional seat due to declining population, marking the sixth consecutive time Ohio has lost seats since 1970. 

Political observers say Republicans are more likely to lose a seat from their current 12-4 advantage due to population shifts in the state’s metropolitan counties that favor Democrats, as well as new constitutional reforms passed by voters in 2018. For the first time in state history, the new map-drawing process requires significant bipartisan support and puts limits on the ability to divide large counties, such as Cuyahoga and Hamilton. 

Despite those obstacles, redistricting experts began circulating a map this week that shows a path to maintaining 12 Republican districts in Ohio, while giving up a Democratic seat. 

“I’ve seen the map and the factual arguments for the plan,” said Jason Mauk, who helped craft Ohio’s current redistricting policy as chief of staff for the Ohio Senate and co-managed the successful 2018 statewide redistricting reform ballot campaign. “It’s a high bar, but they’ve shown it can be done. Republicans would need to persuade Democrats that it’s the best map, which is also a high bar.”

Under the constitutional amendment approved by voters in 2018, any map that fails to win bipartisan approval after multiple votes would need to be redrawn within four years instead of the current 10 years.  

After a brief legal battle, state officials expect to receive the new U.S. census data from the federal government by mid-August, only days before a September 1 deadline to redraw legislative districts. The constitution sets a September 30 deadline for congressional districts. 

“This administration tried to drag its feet and bog this down in court, but Ohio always had the law on its side and now the federal government has finally agreed,” Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost said in a statement. “It’s time to cough up the data.”

Lawmakers expect to begin preliminary work on the new congressional map as budget deliberations end next week. They face a final deadline of November 30 to pass a 10-year map with bipartisan support or a four-year map if they fail to get beyond a party-line vote. 

The 12-3 map that meets the requirements set forth by the re-districting reform legislation can be viewed here.