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Buckeye Reporter

Tuesday, September 30, 2025

Analysis questions claims linking 'red state' politics with higher murder rates

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Dean Rieck, Executive Director at Buckeye Firearms Association | LinkedIn

Dean Rieck, Executive Director at Buckeye Firearms Association | LinkedIn

California Governor Gavin Newsom recently criticized President Donald Trump’s approach to crime, particularly the deployment of federal law enforcement agents to cities led by Democrats. Newsom argued that if the president were truly concerned about crime and violence, he would send federal troops to states like Louisiana and Mississippi, citing higher murder rates in those states compared to California.

“If the president is sincere about the issue of crime and violence,” Newsom said, “there’s no question in my mind that he’ll likely be sending the troops into Louisiana and Mississippi” because, according to Newsom, the murder rate in Louisiana is “nearly four times higher than California’s.”

“I want to present some facts to the president of the United States, and I imagine this is alarming to the president to learn these facts,” he said.

Newsom also joined 18 other Democratic governors in a statement emphasizing public safety for all Americans while criticizing what they described as ineffective federal interference in state National Guard operations.

In response, Issues & Insights published an analysis examining homicide rates across U.S. cities. Their findings indicate that most cities with high homicide rates are governed by Democrats. Of the top 20 cities for homicides in 2024, only one—Shreveport, Louisiana—has a Republican mayor. The analysis notes that many of these cities have not had Republican leadership for decades.

Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson has attributed Chicago’s gun violence problem partly to firearms trafficked from neighboring red states such as Indiana, Mississippi, and Louisiana. He stated: “We will never be able to end gun violence in Chicago as long as the president continues to allow tens of thousands of guns to be trafficked into our state and our city … these guns come from red states,” adding, “that is the harsh reality, whether Republicans like it or not.”

Issues & Insights further argued that local leadership plays a key role in law enforcement decisions affecting crime rates. They suggest that policies such as reduced prosecution or cashless bail may contribute to higher crime levels in some cities.

The Heritage Foundation previously reported that state-level homicide rates are often driven by murders concentrated in large urban areas. When removing data from major cities within red states—such as New Orleans from Louisiana or Jackson from Mississippi—the overall state homicide rates drop significantly. For Illinois, excluding Chicago led to a 55% decrease in its statewide homicide rate.

Gun control group Giffords has given Illinois an A-minus grade for having strong gun laws and prohibitions on gun trafficking.

A recent national poll found that two-thirds of Americans view crime as a major issue nationwide, with over 80% considering it a significant problem in large cities. More than half (55%) supported using military or National Guard assistance for police work in urban areas.

As debates continue over responsibility for public safety and effective responses to violent crime, public opinion appears focused on ensuring safety at both neighborhood and community levels.

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