A recent analysis by John Lott, PhD, and Kesten Green, senior fellow at the Crime Prevention Research Center and researcher at Adelaide University, compared violent crime rates in Australia and the United States. Their findings indicate that Australians face a significantly higher risk of violent crime than Americans.
According to the study, “Australians are clearly at much greater risk of violent crime than Americans.” The authors note that even though the United States experienced a 59% increase in serious violent crime during the Biden administration, Americans remained less likely to be victims of violent crime compared to Australians.
The report highlights that in the most recent comparable years, the U.S. violent victimization rate was 23.3 per 1,000 people, while Australia’s rate was 39 per 1,000 respondents who were victims of one or more selected personal crimes. The authors state that differences in measurement methods mean Australia’s 67% higher victimization rate may actually understate how much more common crime is there relative to the U.S.
Lott and Green point out: “We note that U.S. citizens have far greater and easier access to firearms for self-defense and defense of others than do Australians and that legislation, regulation, and enforcement in the U.S. are much more supportive of defensive use of firearms than in Australia. There are more than 1.6 million defensive gun uses each year in the U.S., almost 21 million holders of permits to carry a concealed handgun, and in 29 of the 50 U.S. states, a permit is not needed.”
The analysis relies on data from national victimization surveys: the Bureau of Justice Criminal Victimization report for 2024 (NCVS) for the United States and the Australian Bureau of Statistics Crime Victimization report for the 2023-24 financial year (ABS). The U.S. survey included responses from about 240,000 people; Australia’s survey had over 26,000 respondents.
The researchers emphasize total per capita violent crime estimates from these surveys rather than only crimes reported to police because reporting rates are below 60% for all categories in both countries.
The study also notes methodological differences between surveys: “There is an important difference between the surveys: The Australia data is the proportion of people or households that have been victimized by crime at least once during the year, whereas the U.S. data are based on counts of crimes.” This means repeat victimizations may be undercounted in Australian statistics compared to those from the United States.
A summary table compares key categories such as assault, robbery, sexual assault/rape, and burglary/break-ins between both countries. After adjusting for repeat victimization using multipliers from prior research, Australia’s adjusted rates remain notably higher across most categories.
These findings align with results from previous international studies using standardized definitions and questions across countries.
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The full report can be accessed at crimeresearch.org/2026/01/australians-are-dramatically-more-likely-to-be-victims-of-violent-crime-than-americans.
Republished with permission from Crime Prevention Research Center.
